Welcome back to Polinomics. 270 Edition.
Mondays: Polinomics Bulletin (covering non-election political news and economic events)
Wednesdays: Polinomics 270 (special edition focused on covering all things related to the 2024 election cycle)
STORY OF THE DAY
Harris vs. Trump: Who looked best and did the debate move anyone?
When previewing the debate last week, we outlined what each candidate would strive to achieve in their first debate meeting last night. We predicted Trump would aim to end America’s honeymoon with Harris while the Vice President would set out to highlight Trump chaos and advocate a page turn.
Did they achieve their objective? Harris hammered that message last night while Trump may have extended the honeymoon by providing contrasting Harris’ poise with winding rants. This comes at an unfortunate time for Trump’s campaign as polls showed Trump closing the gap in recent days.
But who ultimately won the debate? Let’s tackle this question by scoring on a 1-3 scale across four key dimensions: Substance, Style, Poise, Battleground Messaging.
SUBSTANCE
Harris: 2
Harris excelled on foreign policy, January 6th, and healthcare, but her messaging on the Biden administration’s record should have been better. She didn’t tout the strength of the economy or the string of legislative successes to bolster her opportunity economy messaging.
Trump: 1
That he has “concepts of a plan” on healthcare after nine years should be evidence enough as to why a zero is most appropriate, but the scale is the scale. There are areas where the Trump campaign could offer substance on immigration and some economic issues, but he refuses to change his approach. He focused on lying about bizzarre issues, defending his rallies, and touting Viktor Orban.
But this doesn’t matter. Trump and the modern day Republican party don’t rely on substance to win elections. The election is close despite this.
STYLE
Harris: 2
There is no doubt that Harris was very nervous to start. This likely hurt the delivery of her economy responses. The tide turned on abortion, an influential issue for Democrats. She hit the notes she needed to hit on abortion which helped her settle down. The confused gazes were too much in quantity at the beginning, but she began using them at the right moments.
Trump: 1
Trump started well. For the first couple of answers, it felt like he would reign in his character and strive to be “presidential”, but his brash style works best when the opponent is on the defensive. Instead, Trump faltered and allowed the debate to be about his time in office and issues since. As a result, his braggadocio came off as too aggressive.
POISE
Harris: 3
Harris met the moment here. The Trump debate conundrum is coming off strong against him without matching his energy. It’s a tough balance, especially for a female candidate, but Harris nailed the landing, shrugging off most of Trump’s insults and long-winded answers.
Trump: 1
Trump’s followed the inverse path. He started measured and strong, but eventually lost his poise and stood on his Blackfoot the rest of the night the second Harris insulted his rallies. Because he went off the track so early, he was poor in responding to January 6th, Harris’ race, foreign policy, and healthcare where he could have used some of his early poise.
Trump on race - fell apart
BATTLEGROUND MESSAGING (e.g. who spoke to the issues that will turn out voters?)
Harris: 2
Again, the economic messaging should have been far better. I continue to be amazed by the weakness Democrats display in messaging the successes of their economic stewardship over the last four years.
But Harris messaged effectively on all the other issues. She pitched the big tent when touting the 200+ Republicans who endorsed her and welcomed in additional disaffected Republican voters. Her messaging on abortion will activate resonate with female voters and highlighting Trump’s interference with Lankford’s immigration bill will prompt some to think twice about Trump’s sincerity no the issue.
Trump: 1
His economic messaging is baseless, but it does resonate with voters in key states. His basic immigration message also lands but it falls apart when talking about transgender migrant prisoners and pet eating.
FINAL SCORE Harris - 9, Trump - 4
Winner: Vice President Kamala Harris
There’s your score. Harris decidedly won that debate across all dimensions that matter while Trump resorted to his worst habits. As Chris Wallace stated on CNN last night, “Harris pitched a shutout.” However, the impact is uncertain and likely small. Through this debate, we saw a return to normalization for these events. June’s fireworks with Biden’s severe gaffes were an outlier. These debates are typically uneventful, doing very little to move people in either direction. Harris’ performed very well, but this means little if it does not translate into polling in key states to break the deadlock.
The race continues.
To close, here are some memorable quotes:
Trump on healthcare: “I have concepts of a plan...and you’ll be hearing about it in the not -too-distant future.”
Trump: “They’re eating cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there.”
Harris: “I have talked with military leaders, some of whom worked with you. And they say you’re a disgrace.”
Trump on Harris’ race: “I don't know. I don't know. All I can say is I read where she was not Black, that she put out. And, I'll say that.”
THE LEFTOVERS
Upending American exceptionalism: Trump embraces autocratic tactics with promises to investigate and jail opponents
Before Tuesday’s debate, former President Trump said the following on Truth Social over the weekend:
This quote is on brand with Trump pointing only to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, architect of Hungary’s democratic backsliding, as a world leader who supports him.
In a normal election, this alone would be disqualifying. Former President Trump states his intent, backed by his advisors, to investigate and jail political opponents based on the baseless claims of election fraud in 2020.
These are the types of quotes that should break partisanship. This cannot be labeled as a joke either as Trump and his allies already attempted upend American rule of law to achieve a personal aim of staying in office.
Jailing political opponents is a core tool in the playbook of many autocrats. An all-star cast of dictatorial figures such as Xi Jinping, Putin, and Assad love deploying this tool to eliminate dissidents or intra-party detractors and consolidate power.
America’s fundamental unit of strength is this contract. It’s the commitment to the rule of law across decades and through tumultuous periods when other world democracies lost their way. There should be no confusion about Trump’s comments and actions: they are antithetical to core American principles.
THE FAIR & THE FOUL: CAN’T MISS SOCIAL POSTS
The Fair: Poor Springfield, Ohio officials are forced to address claim about...pet eating
The Foul: Trump reacts to Taylor Swift’s Harris endorsement by saying “he likes Mrs. Mahomes much better”
MEDIA TIP: Watch as Pennsylvania voters react to the debate.
Great recap of last night and the best news I could have read this morning. Thank you!!